Ratlinks Redux: Going Full Send in the Market
Part II of thoughts on the markets or how to react when everyone else is getting rich
NOW SHE WANT A PHOTO, YOU ALREADY KNOW, THOUGH
I don’t know about you, but every night I go to bed exhausted.
At first, I thought it was due to stress from work, but it wasn’t.
I practice enough mindfulness to be “Zen AF.”
Maybe I am worn out from raising a family? Nope, not it.
The key here is to put as much as you can on your significant other, in order to maximize time for yourself.
Did I have a potential iron deficiency? Highly unlikely.
I crush desiccated liver.
Am I weary from my endless pursuit to win a slashie award? Maybe?
I am almost close to turning left.
Turns out I am just tired from winning.
All we do is win-win-win no matter what.
Look at the stats:
Unemployment at its lowest level ever. American’s 409ks are bursting at the seams. Heck, even the year is currently the highest ever. How far did our last president get? 2016, yeah that’s what I thought. Thanks, Obama.
However, that doesn’t leave me without worry.
What if we are near peak everything? If so, have I gotten more than my fair share?
EVERYONE’S JUMPING OFF A BRIDGE?
The proliferation of the term FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) can be understood as envy-related anxiety about missed experiences (fear of missing out) and belonging (fear of being left out). Beyond feelings, people who speak of FOMO also speak of it as a behavior, most often as a compulsivity (related to what I characterize as conspicuous sociality) and as an illness to be remedied. And although FOMO is often seen as a recent phenomenon, it is a continuation of a centuries-old concern and discourse about media-prompted envy and anxiety (i.e., “keeping up with the Joneses” and neurasthenia).
“Following the Joneses: FOMO and conspicuous sociality” by Joseph Reagle
Fear of missing out
Keeping up with the Joneses
Following the heard
Call it what you want, but this behavior, known as social proof is not new.
Surprisingly society today, permeates the belief that people want to be included or at least be apart of something. Yet, at the same time the country is more divided than ever.
If everyone else is doing it, should you too?
The answer is yes, but you need to be careful.
2020 has made us all acutely aware of what you can and can not say. Political correctness is everywhere as is cancel culture.
Have a dog at home?
Watch out because PETA says the word 'PET' is patronizing to animals.
‘We don’t hate the word pet we’re encouraging people to use something better like companion,’ says PETA’s Jennifer White
Netflix and Chill?
Careful what you pick.
We all know a few movies that would never be released today and therefore should be avoided.
Say one that glamorizes the abandonment of children specifically those left “Home Alone.”
Maybe you want to check out a story about marriage?
Don’t even think about selecting this film. The one that details a custody battle and the resulting story of a divorced father who transforms himself to spend time with his children. Instead of a montage about self-actualization or the trials and tribulations of appealing to an unjust court system. The protagonist decides his best option to spend more time with his family is by masquerading as an elderly nanny.
I know I know.
We have the benefit of hindsight, but even with that, one must wonder who would greenlight a movie that could be offensive to divorcees, Brits and potentially the elderly?
Worst of all the film is set in San Francisco, a sanctuary city!
Sorry, I didn’t mean to trigger you.
SEIZE THE FISH
Face it. Everyone around you is getting rich and you aren’t.
We all know the feeling.
You can smell that sweet sweet moon money.
You want that yacht, you need those tendies.
This is not a new phenomenon, see tulip-mania, tech stocks or bitcoin. Each iteration appears new, but it’s never different.
Pressure begins to build around you as everyone else is getting rich. If you are so smart why aren’t you too?
FOMO lead demand becomes a YOLO induced full send. Eventually resolved through what is known in financial parlance, as a blow-off top.
The blow-off top is a buying climax. It develops as the end of a prolonged uptrend. It signals a change in the nature of the trend and shows a buying frenzy.
FOMO can lead to investor aggressiveness regardless of risk, known or unknown.
Purchasing an overpriced asset in the hope that it has more to run might be a good idea, but it might not be.
Legendary investor Howard Marks even once warned in the memo Latest Thinking, about the risk of making decisions based on FOMO.
Overpriced markets may have further to go but remember that the potential catalysts we have to worry about most may be the unknown ones.
If you decide not to invest, you have to sit back as everyone else seemingly gets rich. How will it feel when your doorman buys a Ferrari? What do you do then? Complain as you miss out on ANOTHER RECORD CLOSE?
Just remember that by waiting this long, it is likely the second YOU jump in, YOU know the market is moving lower. Then again maybe it won’t. Caveat Emptor.
At the end of the day. Do whatever you want. It’s your money.
