RATLINKS: BORN ON THE 4TH OF JULY
introducing reheat.ai
Welcome back readers.
Happy Independence Day and a joyous mid-summer to those who celebrate.
Looking for a beach read? Why not check out some old editions of Ratlinks you may have missed
THINK FOR YOURSELF
Knowledge is at a tipping point and with the rise of artificial intelligence the speed of human progress is about to accelerate rapidly.
History shows us that development often happens in a straight line, interspersed with occasional stumbles. Had the Library of Alexandria not burned, the course of human knowledge, and potentially history itself, might have diverged dramatically. It is estimated that we could have reached space hundreds of years before Neil Armstrong’s first small steps for man.
Often new technology ignites a revolution that triggers soaring progress, shunning the usual gradual climb. The internet is frequently accorded the accolade of a prominent tech revolution, responsible for exponential growth, although it's a composite of many smaller waves. One such wave triggered in 2009 when mobile networks transitioned from 3G to 4G. This unlocked a new era of technological advancements. The enhanced speed of the 4G network paved the way for the widespread adoption of streaming services. Another feature, real-time location tracking, birthed the ride-sharing industry.
"If you give enough monkeys typewriters, they will eventually type the complete works of Shakespeare by chance."
That idea is known as the Infinite Monkey Theorem, suggests that given infinite time, a monkey typing at random would almost surely produce any given text, such as the complete works of Shakespeare. It is a way to illustrate the vastness of infinite time rather than a practical suggestion.
Forget infinite monkeys working at random what happens when a few million supercomputers are working with purpose?
We stand at a remarkable juncture where the cost of fabricating content is plummeting towards zero, paving the way for limitless creative potential. While at first glance, the threat seems minimal, if one is operating under the assumption that initial content deliveries will be subpar.
Yet, the minuscule costs enable swift evolution through trial and error, instigating an accelerated pace of progress with unanticipated results. Just as the time before streaming or ride-sharing feels distant and antiquated, so will the time before AI-enabled applications.
THE LONG TAIL
The normal distribution or bell curve is a statistical concept that states most of the data points cluster near the average, with fewer points spread out towards the extremes. This pattern is often observed in many real-world phenomena, such as height, IQ score, or the distribution of rainfall amounts. The understanding of properties and characteristics of a normal distribution is the backbone of predictive analysis.
"The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More" by Chris Anderson introduces the concept of the Long Tail, to describe the strategy of selling a large number of unique items in relatively small quantities.
Anderson argues that products in low demand or with low sales volume can collectively make up market share that rivals or exceeds the bestsellers and blockbusters if the store or distribution channel is large enough.
What if the true shape of demand in our economy is not a hit-driven commodity, but a multitude of niches?
With the barrier to entry for content creation lowered to almost zero there will be an infinite amount of content to satisfy any hyper-personalized interests.
Let’s recap the potential steps to success with AI
Step 1. Find a mature category that can be disrupted using AI
Step 2: Develop a new AI-enabled concept along with a web property
Step 3. Drive traffic to the web property
Step 4: Monetize traffic either through ads, subscriptions or both
Step 5: Build a durable user base that can be used later to direct toward other web properties organically
Step 6: Harvest cash flow or sell the property to a more prominent player
reheat.ai
Did you know about 36% of Americans cook at home on a daily basis and 60% of Americans cook at home more than five days a week?
Did you also know the average person knows 15 recipes by heart and eats 10 home-cooked meals weekly? That is not a lot of variety in your diet.
Introducing reheat.ai helping answer the age-old question: What do I want to eat?
reheat allows you not only to create any recipe you desire but remix the dish as many times as you want.
Unsure how to make a certain dish?
- BAM! An almost instantaneous recipe
Have a few ingredients but don’t know what to make?
- Type it in and your meal is served
Ever dreamed up a dish so crazy it’s only theoretical?
- Coming right up
What are you in the mood for? Why not type your mood in and find out?
- Tired and hungry looks a lot different than I want to spend the day baking
reheat’s secret sauce comes from the ability to easily and effortlessly iterate or remix original recipes. For example, say you want tacos but don’t like the recipe presented. Just tweak the input and remix the recipe. Travel on your own culinary journey or go down a rabbit hole: Taco Truck Tacos → Sketchy Taco Truck Tacos → Extra-Sketchy Taco Truck Taco → Dangerously Sketchy Taco Truck Tacos
Develop your menu.
Build your own cookbook.
Meal prep for a week or a month.
The possibilities are as endless as your imagination.
Don’t really know how to cook?
Not a problem. With reheat, you can tailor any recipe to your skill level just add select keywords like easy to make or no-bake.
Why not see how making something different can make a difference in your life?
Variety is the spice of life.
Plus those food delivery fees are starting to add up.
Respond to this email to join the reheat beta.
What’s the worse that can happen?
Sam Zell (1941-2023)
Sam Zell was a one-of-one.
Often referred to as the "father of modern real estate investing" or “the grave dancer” after his 1982 guide to the risky art of resurrecting dead properties.
When Blackstone launched Sam Zell was one of the first people to meet with fledging company
The day after our advertisement appeared in the New York Times, I heard a knock at the door. I opened it to find a guy in leather pants, a black motorcycle jacket, and a little peaked leather motorcycle hat. We were waiting to hear from our familiar M&A clients, but we got the gang leader from The Wild Ones.
“What’s with the outfit?” I said.
“I left my motorcycle downstairs.” Sam said
“Where downstairs?”
“I chained it up on Park Avenue,” he said. “To a hydrant.” Our first day. This is some future, I thought.
A few years ago in a busy New York restaurant, I saw Sam Zell across a large dining room. We met twice before, but there was little chance he would remember me given his stature and my lack thereof. Rather than interrupt his meeting, I sent him a note saying “I saw you at lunch and hopefully we can connect next time you are in NYC.” Shockingly he replied "I thought I saw you. I’m sorry we missed each other. I’ll put you on my agenda, and we will try to set you up for lunch in the near future"
A month or so later, he returned to New York as the guest host on a morning news show. I followed up about a meeting. He promptly responded: My office at 11 am.
Before I arrived I was worried unsure how the meeting would go. My anxieties were quickly relieved as Sam spent over an hour with me and a friend, graciously opening up about his philosophy of life as well as touching on how he made his wealth and what he looks for when investing.
At one point Sam stopped to say do you have any deals?
What kind of deals? I responded
Sam wasn’t looking for deal flow instead he was looking for an opportunity to steer the conversation in a different direction.
Once an individual came to Sam with a formula for an expectorant (cough medicine). Sam didn’t know anything about cough medicine but knew how to spot a good opportunity. He invested, helping to launch the expectorant which became Mucinex. The investment generated a massive return when Mucinex’s parent company Adam’s Respiratory went public.
At that point, I stopped and said “Sam you are known as one of the greatest real estate investors ever and you helped invent Mucinex? How?”
He leaned in and offered these pearls
Be a contrarian.
It's hard being different or standing out from the crowd.
While it can be scary at the moment, in the end, you are betting on yourself.
If you have nothing good to say it may be best to say nothing.
You should never assume the other party shares your view.
Your comments can be harmful not only to the person you are discussing but also to the person you are talking to and even yourself.
Focus on supply and demand in every situation.
If demand has increased, but competition (supply) hasn't. That is where you want to be.
If you are interested in learning more please read Sam Zell’s book Am I Being Too Subtle.
The audiobook is narrated by the author which creates the feeling of spending hours personally with Sam Zell.
Evan, excellent topics. Thank you for a very enjoyable read. Sam Zell’s audio book is a treat- I loved it.